Mu cyumweru gishize, isoko ryatekereje ko ifaranga ryegereye amadolari 7 ku madorari nyuma y’igabanuka rya kabiri ry’umwaka ryatangiye ku ya 15 Kanama.
Ku ya 15 Nzeri, ifaranga ryo hanze ryamanutse munsi y’ifaranga 7 kugeza ku madorari y’Amerika, bituma havuka ibiganiro bishyushye ku isoko.Guhera ku isaha ya saa kumi ku ya 16 Nzeri, amafaranga yo mu mahanga yagurishijwe 7.0327 kugeza ku madorari.Kuki yongeye gucika 7?Ubwa mbere, igipimo cy'idolari cyageze hejuru.Ku ya 5 Nzeri, igipimo cy’idolari cyongeye kurenga urwego 110, kigera ku myaka 20 hejuru.Ibi ahanini biterwa nimpamvu ebyiri: ikirere gikabije giherutse kuba mu Burayi, impagarara z’ingufu zatewe n’amakimbirane ya politiki, hamwe n’ibiteganijwe guta agaciro bitewe n’izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ingufu, ibyo byose bikaba byavuguruye ibyago by’ubukungu bw’isi;Icya kabiri, ijambo rya "kagoma" rya Perezida wa Federasiyo Powell mu nama ngarukamwaka ya banki nkuru yabereye muri Jackson Hole muri Kanama ryongeye kuzamura inyungu ku nyungu.
Icya kabiri, ingaruka z’ubukungu z’Ubushinwa ziyongereye.Mu mezi ashize, habaye ibintu byinshi bigira ingaruka ku iterambere ry’ubukungu: kongera kwiyongera kw icyorezo ahantu henshi byagize ingaruka ku iterambere ry’ubukungu;Ikinyuranyo hagati yo gutanga no gukenera amashanyarazi mu turere tumwe na tumwe duhatirwa guhagarika amashanyarazi, bigira ingaruka ku mikorere isanzwe y’ubukungu;Isoko ryimitungo itimukanwa ryatewe n "umurongo wo guhagarika amasoko", kandi inganda nyinshi zijyanye nabyo nazo zagize ingaruka.Ubwiyongere bw'ubukungu buhura n'ikibazo muri uyu mwaka.
Hanyuma, itandukaniro rya politiki y’ifaranga hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika ryarushijeho kwiyongera, igipimo cy’inyungu ndende gikwirakwira hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika cyagutse vuba, kandi urugero rw’umusaruro uva mu Isanduku ya Leta rwarushijeho kwiyongera.Kugabanuka byihuse gukwirakwizwa hagati y’inguzanyo z’imyaka 10 z’Amerika n’Ubushinwa kuva 113 BP mu ntangiriro zumwaka kugeza kuri 65 BP ku ya 1 Nzeri byatumye igabanuka ry’imigabane mu gihugu n’ibigo by’amahanga bigabanuka.Mubyukuri, uko Amerika yongereye politiki y’ifaranga n’idolari rikaba ryarazamutse, andi mafaranga yabitswe mu gitebo cya SDR (Special Drawing Rights) yagabanutse ku madorari., ifaranga ryo ku nkombe ryagurishijwe 7.0163 kugeza ku madorari.
Ni izihe ngaruka z'amafaranga “kumena 7 ″” ku bucuruzi bwo mu mahanga?
Ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga: Ibiciro biziyongera?
Impamvu zingenzi zitera iki cyiciro cy’ifaranga ry’ifaranga ku madorari aracyari: kwaguka byihuse itandukaniro ry’inyungu ndende hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika, no guhindura politiki y’ifaranga muri Amerika.
Urebye inyuma y’izamuka ry’idolari ry’Amerika, andi mafaranga yabitswe mu gitebo cya SDR (Uburenganzira budasanzwe bwo gushushanya) yose yataye agaciro cyane ugereranije n’idolari ry’Amerika.Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Kanama, amayero yataye agaciro ku gipimo cya 12%, pound yo mu Bwongereza yataye agaciro 14%, Yen y'Abayapani yataye agaciro 17%, naho ifaranga ryataye agaciro 8%.
Ugereranije nandi mafranga atari amadolari, guta agaciro kwamafaranga yabaye make.Mu gitebo cya SDR, usibye guta agaciro kw'idolari rya Amerika, Ifaranga rirashima amafaranga atari amadolari y'Abanyamerika, kandi nta guta agaciro k'ifaranga muri rusange.
Niba ibigo bitumiza mu mahanga bikoresha amadolari, igiciro cyacyo kiriyongera;Ariko ikiguzi cyo gukoresha ama euro, sterling na yen kiragabanuka.
Guhera saa kumi za mugitondo 16 Nzeri, amayero yagurishijwe 7.0161;Pound yagurishijwe kuri 8.0244;Yuan yagurishijwe kuri 20.4099 yen.
Ibicuruzwa byohereza mu mahanga: Ingaruka nziza z’ivunjisha ni nke
Ku nganda zohereza ibicuruzwa hanze cyane cyane zikoresha amadolari y’Amerika, ntagushidikanya ko guta agaciro kwifaranga kuzana inkuru nziza, umwanya w’inyungu zishobora gutezwa imbere ku buryo bugaragara.
Ariko ibigo bitura mu yandi mafranga yingenzi aracyakeneye gukurikiranira hafi igipimo cy’ivunjisha.
Ku mishinga mito n'iciriritse, dukwiye kwitondera niba igihe cy'ivunjisha igihe gihuye n'igihe cyo kubara.Niba hari dislocation, ingaruka nziza zivunjisha zizaba nke.
Ihindagurika ry'ivunjisha rishobora nanone gutuma abakiriya bategereza ko hiyongeraho amadolari, bikaviramo umuvuduko w'ibiciro, gutinda kwishyura n'ibindi bihe.
Ibigo bigomba gukora akazi keza mukugenzura no gucunga ibyago.Ntibagomba gusa gukora iperereza ku miterere y’abakiriya ku buryo burambuye, ariko kandi, igihe bibaye ngombwa, bafata ingamba nko kongera mu buryo bukwiye umubare w’amafaranga abitswa, kugura ubwishingizi bw’inguzanyo mu bucuruzi, gukoresha ubwishyu bw’amafaranga ashoboka, gufunga igipimo cy’ivunjisha binyuze muri “uruzitiro” kandi kugabanya igihe cyemewe cyo kugenzura kugenzura ingaruka mbi zivunjisha.
03 Inama zo gukemura ibibazo byubucuruzi
Ihindagurika ry'ivunjisha ni inkota y'amaharakubiri, ibigo bimwe na bimwe by'ubucuruzi byo mu mahanga byatangiye guhindura byimazeyo “gufunga ibicuruzwa” no kugena ibiciro kugira ngo barushanwe guhangana.
Inama za IPayLinks: Intandaro yo gucunga igipimo cy’ivunjisha rishingiye ku “kubungabunga” aho “gushimira”, kandi “guhanahana ibicuruzwa” (gukingira) ni igikoresho gikoreshwa cyane mu kuvunjisha igipimo muri iki gihe.
Ku bijyanye n’ifaranga ry’ivunjisha ry’ifaranga ry’amadolari y’Amerika, ibigo by’ubucuruzi by’amahanga birashobora kwibanda kuri raporo zijyanye n’inama y’ingengo y’imari ya Leta ya FOMC yo ku ya 22 Nzeri, ku isaha ya Beijing.
Nk’uko byatangajwe na Fed Watch ya CME, ngo bishoboka ko Federasiyo yazamura inyungu ku manota 75 shingiro muri Nzeri ni 80%, naho amahirwe yo kuzamura inyungu ku manota 100 shingiro ni 20%.Hari amahirwe ya 36% yo guteranya amanota 125 yo kwiyongera bitarenze Ugushyingo, amahirwe ya 53% yo kwiyongeraho amanota 150 naho amahirwe 11% yo kwiyongeraho amanota 175.
Niba Fed ikomeje kuzamura igipimo cy’inyungu ku buryo bukabije, igipimo cy’amadolari y’Amerika kizongera kwiyongera cyane kandi amadolari y’Amerika azakomeza gukomera, ibyo bikazakomeza kongera umuvuduko w’ifaranga ry’ifaranga n’andi mafaranga atari yo muri Amerika.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nzeri-20-2022